IndyCar broadcast network ratings excluding the Indy 500 are here.
Indianapolis 500 ratings are here.
Cable network IRL IndyCar Series ratings are here.
Breakdown: Similar Segments
That IndyCar cable television ratings decreased significantly this season is not in dispute. I have argued that Versus is not necessarily to blame.
The following line graph would seem to support my conclusion. It includes cable television ratings for the sequence of IndyCar races that has occurred since Mergification with ChampCar in early 2008. I ask that you examine the graph and look for trends.
Notice that the decrease began at approximately mid-season in 2008. The 2009 Long Beach race, the second event that was telecast on Versus, outperformed four races in 2008 that were telecast on either ESPN or ESPN2. In addition, this year's race at Texas was competitive with the later 2008 events that were telecast on cable.
Cable ratings have been decreasing more or less consistently for a season and a half. That would seem to constitute a significant trend, one that had been established well before Versus entered the picture.
A prior two-year spread is similar in appearance. Cable ratings for the 2003 and 2004 IRL IndyCar season are plotted on the line graph below.
Notice the similarity to 2008 and 2009. With the lone exception of the 2004 opener at Homestead, the general trend is downward. I would argue that 2003 and 2004 were very similar to the past two years.
Both segments were subject to market shocks. Mergification with ChampCar occurred prior to the 2008 season. Blendification with much of what had been CART similarly occurred prior to the 2003 season. Recall that it was then that Honda, Toyota, Target Chip Ganassi Racing, and Rahal Letterman Racing migrated to the IRL.
My hypothesis, therefore, is that in both 2003 and 2008, a percentage of the established consumer market for the IRL product rejected some of the product elements that had been integrated from CART and ChampCar, respectively. Similarly, a percentage of the consumer market for both CART and ChampCar rejected the proposition of watching their previously favored drivers, teams and constructors participating in the IRL.
Granted, there is some variability. Nevertheless, I believe that my hypothesis is reasonably persuasive.
Moving Forward
So, how did IndyCar exit the depression of 2004? In a word, Danica. The cable ratings spiked immediately after she led late in the race at Indianapolis as a rookie in 2005.
Apparently, the drivers in the cars do in fact matter. Regrettably, there are no Danicas on the horizon. In fact, there are few prospective IndyCar drivers from the United States. That does not bode well for the future of the IndyCar Series.
Roggespierre
Roggie,
ReplyDeleteThere are plenty of "perspective Indy Car drivers" from the U.S. out there. Very few of them will ever get a shot though or bring enough money to get a "shot". That is a big reason the sport is dead in this country, which both of us agree strongly on.
JR Hildebrand is out there. Has kicked everybody's butt this year in Indy Lights. Has won at every formula car level he has ever driven at. His prospects for 2010? Murky at best. If Hildebrand was in NASCAR's world, he would already be lined up for a Cup ride. Just like Keselowski and Logano were. They don't normally let young, talented American drivers get away down there. Especially, when they win championships in their lower divisions.
PJ Chesson is out there. Won 30% of the Indy Lights races he ever drove in. Impressed Mo Nunn when he drove for him. Is a lightening rod for attention. Comes from a dirt track background. Where is he today? Spotting for Tomas Scheckter at some races in 2009.
Robbie Pecorari is out there. Another young formula car driver, who won at every level. Won a Indy Lights race, for a dirt-poor team in 2007. Where is he at? Nowhere.
Bryan Clauson is out there. California-born, Hoosier. A USAC grad, with a strong resume. Has won some big USAC races. Is versatile. Ran some lower-tier NASCAR events, with Ganassi. Where is he? Back in USAC.
These are just 4 off the top of my head. There are MANY others, from both road and oval backgrounds, with strong credentials and high levels of talent. The talent in USAC right now, for example, is as strong and deep as its ever been. There are several 17-22 year old kids there, who have big-time POTENTIAL. Are any looking at Indy Cars? Not realistically. They see their breatheren Tony Stewart, Ryan Newman, Kasey Kahne, etc... in NASCAR and don't see anybody they grew up idolizing in Indy Racing.
There are some good kids in lower level formula car series as well. Are they looking at Indy Cars? Some are, but others are realistically looking more towards sports cars, where their breatheren like Fogarty, Sellers and Gurney graduated to.
There are 5-7 American drivers currently in Indy Cars. 3 (Andretti, Rahal and Carpenter) got there because of family "connections" to teams in the sport. Patrick got there because of her gender. Fisher also got there because of her gender, and only is still around because she owns her car. Hunter-Reay earned his way there, but is only "hanging on" because Indy Car needs Izod to stick around.
So, if you are a young American driver aspiring to run Indy Cars in 2009, you need to be one of two things:
1. A women
2. Related to a Indy Car owner
Not a real deep pool of perspective drivers out there, that hit either of those categories.
In related news, SpeedTV is reporting a season average of 0.8 for the NASCAR Truck Series to date. According to my calculations that works out to about 600,000 HHs per race, so at years end their total viewership will be 15 million, or roughly 45% greater than what IndyCar will come in with. By a large margin, the Trucks outperformed the series with the Indy 500.
ReplyDeleteI've looked at the numbers in the past, not deeply or comparably, but things are far worse than I expected. I kind of feel like saying anything more is just pouring salt in a wound.
Somebody better get their checkbook out next year, and the next year, and the year after that…
-John
I am convinced of two things:
ReplyDelete1) The "500" is the key to restoring championship racing to major league importance.
2) Nothing else matters.
History tells us that the AAA/USAC/CART (National) Championships were spinoffs of the "500." History tells us that even with established stars, without the "500" a well financed series with all the advantages eventually withered. An "inferior" series with the "500" survived.
People forget that Tony Hulman was more than this old guy who voiced, "Gentlemen, start your engines." He was a highly successful businessman who constantly found ways to keep the event fresh, promotable, and worthy of its "greatest spectacle" moniker. Current Speedway ownership is great at preserving "tradition" - it is missing the boat on just about everything else.
Everyone gets that the 500 is the most important race. We all know what happened to CART without it and it beats all the other races this year pretty much combined for viewership. But it's fallen in value too.
ReplyDeleteThere are no easy answers. I just wonder if someone would try to do an ARCA series with the old chassis were someone willing to support them? American Indycar Series II anyone?
Mr. Dickle,
ReplyDeleteThe gentlemen you mention are not prospective IndyCar drivers exactly because they do not bring millions of dollars to the table. Conor Daly might have a chance some day due to his dad's connections. Hildebrand might get an opportunity if he sticks around long enough.
Also, I would suggest that Jonathan Summerton and Josef Newgarden might be good IndyCar drivers. Unfortunately, Summerton can't get enough sponsorship together to run the full Lights series. Newgarden still thinks he's working toward F1. But reality will get the best of him in a year or two.
Look at Indy Lights. It's pathetic. Hildebrand and, possibly, Daniel Herrington are the only U.S. prospects in the bunch.
John,
That isn't surprising. The Trucks are a product that is designed to attract an audience. So, too, is the NHRA; it probably outdistances the IRL in TV ratings by a significant margin.
Milwaukee is now as good as gone for the foreseeable future. Chicagoland and Kansas are probably next to go. Barnhart is talking about the "next evolution" of Indy car. He doesn't seem to understand what "evolution" means. If he has some objectives that he wants to accomplish, then he's not sharing them publicly. Perhaps Mike Hull hasn't yet told him what they are.
I hope that nobody comes up with money to bail out this tragicomedy. Better to hit the reset button, slash costs, serve an audience and begin growing the sport in some legitimate capacity.
There isn't enough salt to fill this wound.
Anonymous,
Tony Hulman was a Yale graduate. I think that people forget that because he was so unassuming. There are no Ivy League types at the helm of the IMS and IRL today. However, there are several former high schools buddies and a few husbands of second cousins.
It shows.
VirtualBalboa,
You're right - there are no easy answers. People are going to have to do things that they don't want to do. Most of the participants have not yet reached the point of full recognition. They're still seeking enablers - primarily APEX Brasil and state and municipal governments. Unfortunately, they're having just enough success that the facade remains intact.
Best Regards to All,
Roggespierre
Roggespierre writes: That IndyCar cable television ratings decreased significantly this season is not in dispute. I have argued that Versus is not necessarily to blame.
ReplyDelete---------------------------
Found this, which definitely supports your case. From sports media watch:
http://sportsmediawatch.blogspot.com/2009/10/versus-has-most-viewed-nhl-opening.html
Despite getting bodychecked by DirecTV, Versus still scored with coverage of the NHL's opening night.
Thursday night's NHL doubleheader on Versus, featuring Capitals/Bruins and Sharks/Avalanche, averaged 833,000 viewers -- giving the net its most-viewed NHL opening night ever.
In particular, the early Capitals/Bruins game drew a 0.6 fast national rating, up 20% from a 0.5 for Maple Leafs/Red Wings last year. Meanwhile, the Sharks/Avalanche nightcap drew a 0.4, up 33% from a 0.3 for last year's Bruins/Avalanche game.
To put the 833,000 viewers in perspective, Versus averaged 879,000 for the '09 Stanley Cup Playoffs and 530,000 for the '09 Tour de France. Meanwhile, regular season MLS telecasts averaged 292,000 viewers through 20 games on ESPN2, and regular season WNBA games averaged 269,000, also on ESPN2.
Damon,
ReplyDeleteThank You!
I'll move this to the top rather quickly.
At least we now know of some sports with which the IRL is competitive. I wonder how the operating costs of MLS and WNBA teams stack up.
Appreciatively,
Roggespierre
"Barnhart is talking about the "next evolution" of Indy car. He doesn't seem to understand what "evolution" means."
ReplyDeleteIIRC, evolution is driven through random mutation, which seems apt, no?
-John
John,
ReplyDeleteYes, it does seem apt in one sense.
My thought was different. If the league is dictating a spec, then that spec is by definition not evolutionary.
Evolution would occur only if the IRL opened up the rules and waited to see which mutations of Indy cars showed up.
Best Regards,
Roggespierre