According to Curt Cavin of the Indianapolis Star, Danica Patrick will remain in the IndyCar Series for at least three more years. Cavin reports that the IRL poster girl has re-signed with Michael Andretti's team and will continue with "Motorola based" sponsorship.
Cavin also reported that Danica's future NASCAR plans remain unresolved.
This is a much needed shot of good news for IRL Commercial Division President Terry Angstadt, who also hopes to sign a series title sponsorship deal with Phillips-Van Heusen, parent company of current IndyCar sponsor IZOD.
Team Patrick has to be pissed.
ReplyDeleteThey are desperate to get out of the minors. And they were desperate to get to Ganassi if they were forced to stay. Chip was not interested.
Maybe they can also sign a deal with a NASCAR team, to go along with AGR. She still has big-time interest. Too bad most in NASCAR do not have the same in her (unless she came up with a big buck sponsor; which still could happen).
As Cavin pointed out tonight on his Indy-based radio show, "Danica isn't as popular as some might think". So getting her back for a few more years (if there are actually a few more years of racing left for Indy Racing) is not neccesarily a big thing. It doesn't hurt, but is it going to give the sport momentum? Nope.
If Danica was a part of a series with 28 full time cars, driven by 20 full-time American drivers, driving primarily on American ovals, then you might have something.
Plus, with Indy Racing now going to fewer and fewer ovals, Danica's competiveness in the sport will only continue to go down (which she knows, BTW). And no matter how many cheesy commercials she does; America could care less if she finishes 8th every week in a 20 car field.
Thank you, wet blanket
ReplyDeleteAlso hilarious from Cavin today:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.indystar.com/article/20090925/SPORTS0107/909250373/1052/SPORTS01/Versus+chief+crows+about+IndyCar+efforts
Davis said more people already have watched the IndyCar Series this season (26.7 million) than did last year on ESPN or ESPN2 (25.9 million). Versus has achieved that by tripling the per-event coverage (to seven hours over three shows).
Yes, its true; IRL using street course counting for TV ratings. Immense.
Mr. Dickle,
ReplyDeleteThe whole thing does seem a bit anticlimactic, doesn't it? Team Patrick certainly thought so. Why else would it leak the news to a single reporter in Indianapolis?
Your vision of what the IRL should be is in lockstep with mine. It isn't going to be that, of course, because its costs are so much greater than its market value. It has no choice but to race where a promoter will pay more than it's worth. That means street races (and Barber) that are subsidized by governments. That's bad for Danica, but it probably will keep the Zombie Racing Series undead for the foreseeable future.
I also suspect that NASCAR's growing problems are a central problem for Team Patrick. Valuation of either a Cup or Grand National program must be extremely difficult right now. Declining television ratings and attendance mean that NASCAR sponsorship valuations in 2010 must be significantly less than they were in 2009. Rather than try to figure out the correct price, sponsors that aren't locked into contracts for 2010 are heading for the exits.
Yes, the economy is not good. But that really has very little to do with the sponsorship problem in NASCAR, let alone the Zombie Racing Series.
Damon - I apologize for throwing more water on the blanket.
Best Regards,
Roggespierre
I think perhaps you who are now pooh-poohing Danica, may be surprised at how much the IMS had to put in the package, and what Michael Andretti has agreed to add to the engineering talent at Andretti Racing to keep her.
ReplyDeleteThe leak at Andretti-Green probably came from the Green side, and when the official anouncement comes we MAY learn more about the size and terms of the contract.
Now that she has (apparently) signed Cavin can try to diminish her value, but if she had left I wonder what he'd have said?
IMG and her representative are the best so she will not need any federal bailout money; the IRL will!!
osca
Mr. Conceicao,
ReplyDeleteThank you for contributing.
Davis does have a point. Those additional viewers probably can be sold to prospective sponsors.
But your point is well taken. Additional hours of telecast time do not make the series more competitive in the marketplace.
If I were Davis, then I would be furious with the IRL and its teams. Versus operates only in the United States. That is where all of its viewers reside. The IRL, with encouragement from the teams, appears to be doing everything it possibly can to give Versus a product that can't be sold in the United States. Then, adding insult to injury, the teams and drivers blame Versus, and the IRL stands by idly and allows it to happen.
Recall that Versus is paying for this. It is the customer in this relationship. Furthermore, it has demonstrated that it can draw a significant audience - even without 18 million DirecTV subs - if it has programming that is formulated to attract viewers in the United States.
Davis should be irate.
Thanks again for contributing the new information. I invite you to do so again as often as you wish.
Best Regards,
Roggespierre
Osca,
ReplyDeleteI didn't intend to pooh-pooh Danica. Frankly, I like her. She's interesting. And no matter what anyone says, she's still the most marketable asset in a league that has very few of them.
If the IMS put money in the pot, then I give it credit for spending it well. I would prefer that it realign IndyCar TEAM to achieve the same goal on a larger scale. There is no reason to distribute $1 million or more to those who show up with Robert Doornbos and Raphael Matos. They might be good drivers, but they certainly do not contribute $1 million apiece to the value of the IndyCar Series.
I would much rather see the IMS give that money to Danica, as well as a few other drivers that U.S. racing fans might actually show up and tune-in to watch.
Best Regards,
Roggespierre
Why are we concluding that she WON'T run any races in the various Nascar divisions other than Cup next year?
ReplyDeleteAs Marty Smith of ESPN pointed out on Nascar Now a few days after the IRL was in Sonoma, where Danica initially said she was staying at AGR, just because she's going to run full-time in the IRL doesn't mean she isn't still looking at Nascar and won't run any races in 2010.
It was all about trying to get the IRL side of the contract done first, then take care of Nascar second.
We aren't done with this story until Danica herself comes out and says, "No Nascar of any kind in 2010".
Interesting rumor going around now too that the IRL may have lost the Brazil date & money to A-1 GP. An alternate version of the story has A-1 GP coming in as a support series. If the IRL lost its big international cash cow event to a series that will be lucky to answer the bell in 2010, that's a pretty bold statement about the future of the series.
ReplyDelete"But your point is well taken. Additional hours of telecast time do not make the series more competitive in the marketplace."
ReplyDeleteTrue, but accurately predicting what VS would deliver and then doing it goes a long ways in the competency and trust department. So maybe when the teams complain to the network, for a change, the teams might listen in regards to what the network needs from them. What do you think VS' response would have been if NHLR asked them if they should put Servia or Paul Tracy in the seat? My point is if we can get to a point where the teams and league take a back seat and follow the lead of say a Geico and VS (i.e. those with business acumen and competence), a lot of the problems with marketability would sort themselves out.
-John
"As Cavin pointed out tonight on his Indy-based radio show, 'Danica isn't as popular as some might think.'"
ReplyDeleteWell, then, there it is. I don't know why she even rates a mention on his show. Ignore her, Curt, and don't take any mailbag questions, either. Who needs ol' "one fuel strategy win" Danica, anyways?
John,
ReplyDeleteI would like to believe that your theory about the teams might come true. But I am not optimistic.
There are exceptions among the newbies - Reinbold and even TG to an extent. But the old guard has established a culture over the course of more than 30 years. They suffer from what economists call the "Endowment Effect," the notion that a product is worth more because it is theirs.
Somebody ought to think that GEICO might just know a thing or two about advertising. It's only EVERYWHERE, you know? But, no, these guys plan to continue arbitraging supply chains so that they can do what they want regardless of whether or not there is substantial demand for it in the marketplace.
These teams will become marketable only when they are left with no other choice. They do what they like, like what they do, and expect to continue doing it at someone else's expense. After 30 years, why would they expect anything else?
They need a "nudge," as the behavioral economists like to say. And it will have to come from the IRL. IndyCar TEAM must be reconfigured to reward teams that contribute quantifiable market value. At present, it is a subsidy that enables the teams to operate as if all is well.
The league also must eliminate the enormous inefficiencies that are mucking up the supply chain. Honda, Dallara, and Firestone have been good partners in many regards. But the concessions they were granted have artificially inflated the cost of participation for the teams.
This virtually ensures that drivers must be financiers. We know that Americans who are not already in NASCAR Cup do not have that capability. Therefore, the drivers will be from other countries. Therefore, the American audience will continue to shrink.
I am amazed by the IRL's willingness to suffer so that its teams might do what they wish. The league is subsidizing the teams in exchange for a product that can't be sold to an American audience. That is why I am so critical of management.
I want IRL management to succeed. But successful managers tend to make decisions that are unpopular with their suppliers. That is because successful managers look after the interests of customers first. The IRL managers do not.
That does not make them unique in the history of IndyCar racing. Indeed, they fit the historical mold. I would like to see an IRL Product Manager who possesses the authority and the guts of Bill I and Bill II of France, someone who is willing to say "no" for the good of the sport and those who truly love it.
Until that manager is employed and invested with real authority, we will continue to witness what we are witnessing now - perpetual pursuit of temporary paydays that might finance whatever it is that the teams want to do.
I really like Versus. Their coverage is the best that IndyCar has seen in a very long time. But the IRL is not living up to its end of the bargain. Yes, it's providing some advertisers. But it's not producing a product that has any significant growth potential.
Anyway, I shall descend from my soapbox, at least for the moment.
Thank you again for your thoughtful and well reasoned comments. I value them very much.
Best Regards,
Roggespierre
VirtualBalboa,
ReplyDeleteThat's a very interesting rumor, but can it possibly be true? Is A1GP going to answer the bell next year? I admit that I haven't kept abreast of the situation there, but the last I heard was that the whole thing might go kaput.
The support race idea seems more likely, at least on the surface. If that's the case, then I think we can assume that APEX Brasil and the various government entities down there will be shelling out some serious coin.
If that's the case, then both the IRL and A1GP must be thinking that this is too good to be true. What has either series done to warrant that kind of payday?
Best Regards,
Roggespierre
Roggespierre,
ReplyDeleteFrance had as an operational axiom that the teams (and drivers) needed NASCAR more than NASCAR needed them. If you think about it, it's just the opposite with ICS. ICS needs the teams and/or drivers to sell a $1.2 million product for $5 million for ICS to survive.
But there's a reason the teams needed NASCAR, namely the value NASCAR provided to them. NASCAR's ratings are down about 20% from their peak a few years back; this year they're tracking around 4.2 average rating. What you might find surprising is that NASCAR's average rating in 1996 was 4.2. Not only that but in 1996, 80% of their races were on cable and it only cost $5 million for the teams to run a season.
So one could make the argument that NASCAR's popularity hasn't changed all that much if at all, yet their value to the market has increased 400%, a large portion of which was passed along to the teams. IMO, that's why the teams and drivers needed NASCAR.
They (teams/drivers) also needed NASCAR's vision and leadership. With the advent of cable, France saw the change coming from televised sports to sports entertainment, with entertainment being the operative word. They also migrated the sport away from a Southern niche into mainstream acceptance without too much carnage. Then before anyone saw the economic bubble about to burst, the C.O.T. program was put in place. Everyone from the drivers, teams, media and fans hated the car, but tough or tough love, NASCAR didn't waver. I'd imagine the respective parties are okay with the decision now.
I'd contrast all this with IndyCar and the various leadership it's had over the years, but the results and current situation speaks for themselves. But I guess the question is where does it all go from here.
I prefer to start and end with the concept of bringing value to the market. If a business can't do that one simple thing it really has no role in the marketplace and if an enterprise takes in more value than it gives out it's really just a parasite. With the current IndyCar business model the teams are sucking off of the sponsors, getting more than they give in return. The series is sucking off of the networks getting more in broadcast fees than they're returning in viewers. And while I'm sure some will be offended, the fans collectively are also getting more in return than they're giving in value; they get to watch $120 million worth of racing budgets while only giving $40 million or so in viewership value. This is not to imply it's the teams or fans are at fault per se, just that a value giving business model can't be influenced by what they (teams/fans) want especially at the expense of those who are giving more than they're getting back, mainly the sponsors and broadcast partners. But you know all this.
My Grandpa used to tell me, "you can't afford to engage in a business transaction where the other party doesn't benefit as much as you." It took me quite a while to understand what he meant, but when I hear things like what's going on with Barber and other proposals I know the powers that be with ICS don't play by the same rules. Additionally, when Menard offers $3 million for title sponsorship and Geico $1.2 million for a car, who do they think they're fooling by saying $3 million is really worth $9 million and $1.2 million worth $5 million? It doesn't matter I guess, because no one is buying it, literally. Until that mindset and its perpetrators are rooted out, nothing will change - the parasite will either be removed or kill its host(s) and die.
Rant over,
-John
"France had as an operational axiom that the teams (and drivers) needed NASCAR more than NASCAR needed them. If you think about it, it's just the opposite with ICS."
ReplyDeleteIt was always the opposite in Championship racing, which revolved around the "500." Didn't matter if it was AAA/USAC/CART, until the IRL the series was a spinoff of the "500." The worst mistake was branding the "500" as an IRL event, thus diminishing its legend as an all-out/all-comers race.
IMHO, the historic key to revival is not to pour more resources into the IRL, rather remove IMS/Hulman assets from the series, open the "500" entry rules, offer again the sport's largest purse, and stand back.
The "500" needs the IRL like a giant hole in its pocket.
John,
ReplyDeleteIn my estimation (whatever that is worth), your comments here are spot-on.
I will ask a question.
You said, "Until that mindset and its perpetrators are rooted out..."
That is why I started this blog. I love IndyCar racing. I want the rent-seekers, fools, scam artists and parasites out. What more can be done? What actions can be taken?
How?
Best Regards,
Roggespierre
Roggespierre,
ReplyDeleteIf we're looking at the series as being in survival mode, one concept we haven't mentioned is the Pareto Principle: where 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes. While the numbers aren't exact, roughly 80% of IndyCar's market value comes from 20% of their races (ABC races). And again while not exact, roughly 80% of the team's budgets are used pursuing 20% of IndyCar's market value (VS races).
If you look at the numbers I posted under your "Four Ovals…" blog, the cumulative ratings for the 5 races in '96 are 40% greater than the cumulative ratings for this year's entire season. Additionally, there's no indication that the viewing public has much interest in the series points chase and treats the series simply as a collection of events with the 500 as a cornerstone.
Not that I'd prefer the above solution, but if the question is, "how can we survive?" I'd probably give it serious consideration. And if that solution still wasn't viable, I'd apply the 80/20 concept to the ABC races and circle the wagons around the 500.
I just don't know how bad the situation really is and if "how to fix the problem" means survival, stabilizing or developing a growth model. In my mind, it comes down to where they're really at:
1) Survival - cut races. They don't have the time or money for new cars.
2) Stabilize - new cars. Cut per race operational costs without losing market presence.
3) Growth - new cars, American drivers and establish identity.
-John
"It was always the opposite in Championship racing, which revolved around the "500." Didn't matter if it was AAA/USAC/CART, until the IRL the series was a spinoff of the "500." The worst mistake was branding the "500" as an IRL event, thus diminishing its legend as an all-out/all-comers race."
ReplyDeleteRocketman,
I've come at it from a different angle in my thoughts, but I've wondered if the alphabet soup of sanctioning bodies hasn't in some way diminished or possibly overshadowed the racing product. There's some kind of polarizing effect going on like what happened with the IRL/CART/ChampCar split that I can't quite put my finger on. In the latter instance, why weren't the 'racing' fans more excited about having twice as many races to watch? It seems like the fans associated/related more with the sanctioning bodies than the actual racing product they produced.
-John
In the latter instance, why weren't the 'racing' fans more excited about having twice as many races to watch?
ReplyDeleteProfessional boxing from about 1981-present will lead you to the answer.
John,
ReplyDeleteIf what I'm told is true, then we are indeed entering survival mode. I'm going to have to think about what that actually means.
Options would include slashing the schedule and/or going to the Lights chassis and engines. Those would be tourniquets.
It's not so much canceling races but defaulting on their contractual obligations. I'd imagine the group from Daytona would show up for a bankruptcy hearing better prepared than Tony was when CART befell a similar fate.
ReplyDelete"To capture the enemy's entire army is better than to destroy it; to take intact a regiment, a company, or a squad is better than to destroy them. For to win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the supreme of excellence. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the supreme excellence."
- Sun Tzu
NASCAR doesn't kill it's competition; they acquire and marginalize.
"When you surround the enemy always allow them an escape route. They must see that there is an alternative to death."
- Sun Tzu
-John
For those who say that A1GP WAS in financial trouble, they are apparently no longer in such dire straits. A1GP chairman Tony Teixeira announced on Friday (9/25) that they have secured full funding that is supposed to keep A1GP going for "at least three to four years until such a time as the series is independent." Although other articles speculated that a new investor (sucker?) was found, the quotes from Teixeira seem to indicate a combination of new money and some cost cutting. This may have been why Ferrari had no comment about their status in the series when the reports of pulling their cars and engines surfaced. After all, would the loudest mouth in FOTA suddenly clam up about a lesser series if the reports of A1GP doom and gloom were true? Hardly, I say.
ReplyDeleteFWIW, can we, right now, automatically say that the IRL is financially solvent enough to be around four years from now like A1GP did last week? Considering how many teams would probably not be able to afford to buy 1-2 chassis per entrant if the change came in 2010 instead of (at the earliest) 2012 AND digesting how the TEAM program allegedly can't support more than 24 full time cars, I don't think we can make that blanket proclamation. If the ICS and A1GP do run on the same weekend at Mystery Motorsports Park somewhere in Brazil next season (I'm not sure what else to call it right now), A1GP may actually be the stronger of the two series financially, at least in the short term.
Anonymous,
ReplyDeleteOf course it all depends on the details of A1GP's financing, but you could very well be right. The IRL requires subsidies from the IMS and state and municipal governments.
A1GP now has IMG Sports Media marketing its worldwide broadcast rights. I just read an IMG release to that effect. That alone lends significant credibility. Notice how quiet IMG has been regarding Danica's re-signing to stay in the IRL. Forstmann's guys are apparently not impressed with the folks at 16th and Georgetown. They shouldn't be.
Best Regards,
Roggespierre
John,
ReplyDeleteThat's really the crux of the problem, isn't it? The France family became professionalized and the Hulman George family did not.
NASCAR and ISC are sophisticated organizations that hire professionals for their management abilities. IMS hires school buddies and guys who married second cousins.
The differences are stark.
Best Regards,
Roggespierre