Tuesday, September 22, 2009

IndyCar Barber Buzz


The truth is obvious to those who wish to see it.

The Indy Racing League will stage an event at Barber Motorsports Park in 2010 because the contracts include either explicit or implicit government guarantees that everyone - league, track, promoter and contractors - will be paid.

Daily attendance will be capped at 30,000. So it would seem that drawing a large audience is not a priority - although the crowd will likely be deemed "phenomenal." A writer to Curt Cavin's blog at the Indianapolis Star now suggests that selling tickets might not be too high on the list, either.

The IRL is a market failure. That is why it needs APEX Brasil. That is why it is seeking subsidies in Baltimore. That is why it will continue to lose events at facilities that are expected to turn a profit. And that is why it sold a race to ZOOM Motorsports, the Barber promoter that is backed by the governments of the City of Birmingham and the State of Alabama.

Those who sell products that are rejected in the marketplace have no choice but to seek non-market solutions.

Terry Angstadt is indeed a fine salesman. He is the architect of what could well be the first publicly underwritten IndyCar event at a permanent racing facility.

Bravo!

Roggespierre

Indy Idea Enters the Ring

Contributions from readers of The Indy Idea are both welcomed and encouraged. In particular, I appreciate well-reasoned arguments that do not mirror my own.

The following example is from VirtualBalboa. My comments follow. I invite you to add yours.

VirtualBalboa

"Can't agree that the IRL was ever a good idea. Should have taken a seat on the board and run a team with Americans in order to try and divert the direction instead of shooting the whole thing in the head to save it from itself. It's tough to say, after all, that he was a success in saving the 500 if there isn't one, or if it becomes a classics race. Road to hell paved in good intentions and all that."

Roggespierre

You'll get no argument from me about the IRL failing to save the 500. However, I suspect that a seat on the board would not have mattered all that much. He wasn't going to stop the leveraging and rent-seeking that destroyed the economics of the sport. He wasn't going to have enough influence to change the direction.

Hindsight being what it is, I would suggest that he did not go far enough with the IRL. The product required greater differentiation. He probably focused too much on the tracks (the all-oval rigidity) and too little on the cars. He also failed to sufficiently address the underlying economic problems in the supply chain. Yes, a cottage industry began to take root, but it did not include the base chassis. The engine economics were pretty good initially, but he blew them up to attract Toyota and Honda.

VirtualBalboa

"I've seen a couple arguments about trying to do redistribution of sponsorship. A lofty goal perhaps but I don't see this as being realistic. Nor do I necessarily see ridding Penske and Ganassi as being a way to solve the problem. Indy without Penske is like F1 without Ferrari at this stage. It was devastating to the legitimacy of the race when they weren't around, even if the US 500 itself was a failure..."

Roggespierre

Allow me to clarify my position. Redistribution of sponsorship is not something that I support. And I do not want to get rid of the Penske and Ganassi teams. What I do want is more IndyCar teams that have legitimate, value-based financing that they sell in the competitive market for auto racing sponsorship. Penske will keep his sponsor because he operates in a non-competitive advertising market. That will change only with the law.

Ganassi is a different story. Recall the rumors about Lifelock sponsoring Buddy Rice in 2009. We don't know why, but we do know that Lifelock landed at Ganassi. Remember Robby McGehee's Energizer car? That went away when Ganassi came to the IRL. Ganassi's ability to land consumer products sponsors is limited only by the number of product categories in stock at Target. He can offer something that is of much greater value than sponsorship of an IndyCar team.

I want all IndyCar teams to have an opportunity to sell value that is correlated with their cost of operating. That requires slashing operating expenses. If that were to occur, then Ganassi would have to compete for sponsors. What might happen then? Who knows? Perhaps he would keep them all; good for him if he does. However, having observed the distribution of consumer products sponsors in NASCAR Cup, I suspect that Ganassi might have some difficulty.

My point is that Ganassi is fully incentivized to maintain a status quo in which the cost of operating an IndyCar team is greater than the promotional value that the team generates. For as long as that remains the case, Ganassi can continue to add Fortune 500 associate sponsors without having to compete with other teams.

VirtualBalboa

"No one buys that the Americans in the IRL are the best US drivers. Americans don't care if they win because no one believes they're racing world class opposition anymore. No one thinks they're in the toughest series in the world, or that they are better than their peers. This is because they are right: Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, and Jimmie Johnson are likely the 4 best drivers currently birthed in this country, and none drives Indy cars. Fans recognize that and don't want to support a second rate series. Until they shake that (and is there any other way than to bring in NASCAR talent?), there's nothing they can do. It's an image problem that started with the media ridiculing the "stars of the short track" and only built steam when Juan Pablo Montoya denigrated the 500 en route to dominating it."

Roggespierre

Again, I do not disagree. However - and this might raise some objections - I will argue that it does not matter whether or not Americans think that the IRL has the best American drivers. My position rests on the quantifiable demand that has been demonstrated for the NASCAR Grand National Series. It, too, does not include the best American drivers - not always, anyway. That said, is there anyone at the IRL offices who would not like to have Grand National's attendance and television ratings right about now? They look pretty attractive to me.

Furthermore, I admit that I do not care whether or not anyone believes that IndyCar attracts the best drivers in the world. The entire "best" argument, in my view, is one for the bar stool. I want an IndyCar Series that is a competitive product. A strong base of drivers from the United States is critical to establishing market competitiveness. We need only look at Indy Lights and Atlantics for evidence to suggest that the combination of spec formula cars and road courses is not likely to generate the desired product attributes for IndyCar.

In my view, VirtualBalboa is right about Montoya. But I would argue that it was the Indy 500 of the following year that led to IRL capitulation and economic ruin. Montoya might have been written off as a singular talent. But all credibility was lost in 2001, when Eliseo Salazar, the top IRL finisher, crossed the bricks a lap down in 7th place.

VirtualBalboa

"One thing rarely discussed in lieu of all this is that open wheel dirt racing is in decline. There's far fewer cars than there were 5-10 years ago and dirt tracks are closing down rather than appearing. The World of Outlaws is trucking along with its sprints and late models, but one look at the number of available entries for midget, sprint, and Silver Crown in 2009 is well down. The entire ladder is broken, not just the top rung."

Roggespierre

This is undeniably true. That is why I do not believe that dirt track drivers in large numbers are essential in order to achieve market acceptance. It is much more important that the IRL establish a strong base of competitive drivers from the United States. It would be nice if two or three were established dirt racers. There should be room enough in the IRL for both A.J. Foyt and Peter Revson.

Roggespierre

Monday, September 21, 2009

IndyCar 2010: Whither Brazil?


Staging the 2010 season opening IndyCar race at an undisclosed Brazilian location seemed like a harebrained idea from the get-go. Nevertheless, IRL Commercial Division President Terry Angstadt dropped more than a few hints to suggest that it would happen.

Since then, silence.

Curt Cavin of the Indianapolis Star reports that the IRL brass returned to Brazil just prior to the annual IndyCar sabbatical in Japan. Apparently, the latest trip to South America followed another Brazilian junket in early September.

Is Angstadt's season opener - and more importantly, his 2010 financier - in jeopardy? We can only speculate, but it would seem that in this case no news is bad news, at least from Angstadt's perspective.

Perhaps APEX Brasil has come to its senses, recognizing that market penetration in the United States might be better achieved without dragging around the abysmal economic failure that is the IndyCar Series. Perhaps APEX Brasil fears that IndyCar racing is no more popular in Brazil than it is in Japan and the United States.

Is finding a suitable venue the real hold-up? It could be. But the true snag might also be something as ancillary as the volume of Brazilian tea that Super Target is willing to stock. Such is the perversion of financing a market failure on wheels.

Race day at Homestead-Miami would appear to be D-Day. APEX Brasil's U.S. headquarters are nearby. If this "race" is going to happen in 2010, then the 2009 season finale would seem to be both the time and place to announce it.

Here's hoping for more silence. Perhaps, then, somebody can begin shaping an IndyCar Series that might earn an audience.

Roggespierre

Note to Readers and Guests

Thank you to those who visit the Indy Idea regularly. Your numbers have grown faster than I could have imagined. Your comments have given me reason to reconsider my opinions regarding many subjects. That is the type of forum that I envisioned creating here.

I am aware that my writings have been critiqued, once again, by the writer of another blog. Last week, I committed a great deal of time and effort to defending myself against such criticism. That was a mistake, one that I will not make again.

My goal here is to provide credible analysis. Whenever possible, I use empirical data. I have noticed an increased interest in hard numbers. This is likely a case of mere coincidence; it is a good one at that.

I have also attempted to utilize the writings of thought leaders in the fields of marketing, management, and corporate strategy. Anyone can write that "exposure" and "promotion" are needed in IndyCar racing. Everyone knows that costs must be reduced. Such comments are not insightful.
You can promote pickled herring and cut its price as much as you
want. The market for it will remain small. Sometimes, the product is the problem.
I want an economically competitive IndyCar Series, one that does not require subsidies from governments, arbitraged supply chains, drivers and the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. I am convinced that the present course shall lead to ruin. That is why I want it stopped.

Disagreement is welcome here. I am not always right. But I am done linking to those who seem interested only in taking pot shots.

Fool me once... you know?

Roggespierre

Sunday, September 20, 2009

IndyCar Championship: Tight but no Tension




Three different drivers can win the 2009 IndyCar Series championship by winning and leading the most laps in the finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Needless to say that the battle between Scott Dixon, Dario Franchitti and Ryan Briscoe is tight. Unfortunately, it seems that the resulting tension among auto racing consumers in the United States is less than palpable.

Talented as they are, the championship contenders have failed to establish a fan base. Why?

Let's return to IndyCar Maxim #4. I quote renowned marketing and strategy professor Clayton Christensen.
"...the job, not the customer, is the fundamental unit of analysis for the marketer who hopes to develop a product that consumers will buy." - Prof. Clayton Christensen, Harvard Business School
Few consumers are buying the IndyCar racing product. I would suggest that the core problem is that the IRL has no clue about the "job" that prospective racing consumers want to get done.

Christensen continues:
"With few exceptions, every job people need or want to do has a social, functional, and emotional dimension."
This insight is extremely important. The IndyCar product is the brainchild of IRL Racing Operations Division President Brian Barnhart. The former racing mechanic possesses significant expertise with regard to the functional aspects of the product. One suspects that the social and emotional product dimensions might sound to Barnhart like so much gobbledygook.

If that is the case, then perhaps Barnhart should take a glance at the grandstands and the Nielsen numbers. This is why the IRL needs an IndyCar Series product manager. Sales and racing operations do not begin to cover the activities that are necessary if IndyCar is to ever succeed in the competitive marketplace.

Not just an Audience, a TV Audience

IndyCar's failure to attract an audience on television is attributable to multiple factors. Some are easily identified. For example, night races are consistently outperformed by daytime events. Viewership for at least three of the IRL's established oval events has declined as more road and street races - and therefore more international road racing drivers - have been added.

The IndyCar schedule is inconsistent, confused and arbitrary. Fans of NASCAR and Formula 1 know exactly what they can expect when they watch a race. IndyCar is hopelessly muddled - a predominantly road and street racing series that includes almost exclusively road racing drivers and that happens to include the world's most famous oval race. The schedule is a non-strategic amalgamation of events for which promoters will pay and teams will show up.

The cars and events are managed. The product is not.

NASCAR has mastered what sociologists call parasocial interaction: a relationship between two individuals in which only one is actively engaged. In the case of NASCAR, that individual is the fan. The object of the parasocial relationship is the driver. This is not the same as living vicariously through another. Parasocial interaction in NASCAR is about the fan perceiving that he or she and the driver share certain life experiences and values.

Interestingly, psychologists suggest that parasocial actors tend to be more solitary and detached than others. Watching racing on television is by definition a solitary activity. Yes, some watch in large gatherings, but most tend to view races either alone or in the company of immediate family. Therefore, those who tend to engage in parasocial relationships would seem to be outstanding candidates to watch racing - and they do watch NASCAR racing - week after week.

Conversely, fans who attend IndyCar street races are commonly believed to be seeking a vibrant and interactive social setting. They are therefore not interested in parasocial relations. Is it any wonder that few of them are willing to sit alone, watching an IndyCar race, when they are not actually attending the event?

NASCAR has a consistent culture that tends to attract natural television viewers. IndyCar has a variable and often contradictory culture that appeals to few who are likely to watch races on TV.

More Questions

Racing fans who like the kind of racing that produced Scott Dixon, Dario Franchitti and Ryan Briscoe are not likely to watch a lot of racing on television. In addition, fans who might want to have parasocial relationships with IndyCar drivers are not likely able to do so because the fans and the drivers lack the types of shared life experiences upon which parasocial involvement is established.

The IRL is fond of showing its drivers participating in other sporting activities that they enjoy. Unfortunately, this typically entails some type of soccer, rugby or Australian Rules event. This is a waste of time because it says to the parasocial prospect, "You're right. These guys really are nothing like you. They're interested only in things that you don't care about."

Parasocial relations are essential in sports for which the players do not wear jerseys that identify their home city or school. Fans who lack a home team are event-goers. In that, there is no inherent harm.

Just don't expect them to look for your product on television. And don't be surprised when a tight championship battle fails to induce tension.

Roggespierre